- Betting on passing fads and stable subjects is usual for humanity, for example in the first century many Romans bet that Christianity would be a passing fad, only decades after it got popular the Roman started to embrace it.
- The Betamax/VHS video system battle for example: it was probably the first fad /stable dilemma I saw in my life.
- I love betting on passing fad’s or “expiration time” for new technologies, I invite you to do it, only two rules:
- Never bet further than your supposed life span
- Publish it on the net for public criticism or acclaim.
Note on my bets: Clearly I tend to underestimate the power of cash-cows… the moment a company gets to a given point of money-making it diversifies and standard rules do not apply anymore: it is just one more monster.
| Years of bet and of expected resolution |
Bet | Conclusion |
| 2017/2025 Robotization | Robotization | Pending |
| 2015/2020 MMOVR worlds | OASIS is coming | Equilibrium limitations are in the way, it seems like it may not be solvable in the near future |
| 2011/2012 Tuenti-Telefonica | Telefonica is old school, they won’t grow in latin america | Tuenti is soaring |
| 2011/2020 Self-driving cars | On a TV interview on May 2011 I said cars would drive themselves between 2018 and 2023 | Correct. But it only applies to big pockets yet :/ |
| 2011/2013 Twitter | Just a service that may be hard as hell to monetize | Twitter is ok for marketing and engaging users but little more |
| 2010/2012 Go (google programming language) | As of 2010 Go is no way up to the expectancies. | Go is not going anywhere yet |
| 2010/2012 Facebook | After two years of exponential growth and several months of linear growth I believe 2010 starts the demise of the platform. | Facebook had a brief low point but kept on escalating. Diversification and cash-cow strategies played a big role |
| 2006/2007 Viral amateur videos | It was a matter of time before professional marketing gets all over it | Most virals are packaged marketing products |
| 2007/2011 Youtube | This is cool but mainstream media will have it closed or absorbed. | In the end the main stream was google |
| 2000/2020 Service robotics | By 2000 I wrote in my notes service robots would be all over us by 2020. | Not so much in living spaces, omnipresent in logistics |
| 1999/2003 Google search engine | Me back in 1999: What kind of name is that for a search engine!, for sure it is not better than Altavista. | Google is Big Brother |
| 1996/1999 Internet | At soon as I tried Infovia in 1996 and IRC I knew Internet was something for life | Welcome our Internet overlords |
| 1995/2006 Videogames | In 1995 in a school work I defended videogames market would be bigger than movies within 10 years. | By several accounts it happened so between 2006 and 2009 |